17/06/2026 by Cameron Clarke
The oil-producing countries in the OPEC+ grouping have decided to increase their total quota amid the disruption in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In reality, the over 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase from July will mean little for producers in the Gulf, because the inability to use the key shipping lane has limited their ability to get oil and other products to market.
It may, however, give other states more flexibility to produce and export more oil.
If OPEC+ repeats similar raises for August and September, this will fully reverse the 1.65 million bpd production cut agreed in 2023. According to Reuters, this takes into account the UAE leaving OPEC on May 1.
Jorge Leon, a former official at OPEC and now an analyst at Rystad, said:
“An OPEC+ production increase means very little while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the market could move very quickly from fear of shortage to fear of surplus.”
Nevertheless, the disruption may have an effect on derived products like petrol, diesel and lubricant products like grease and hydraulic oil from brands like Mobil and Texaco.
Should the Hormuz reopen, it will likely take time for the system to normalise, and IEA countries will need to refill any reserves that have been released since the record coordinated release that was announced in March. The OPEC+ group also said it would closely monitor market conditions and retain the right to pause or reverse any production cuts.
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