17/07/2024 by OilStoreAdministrator
UK-based oil major BP has published its Energy Outlook for this year, in which it predicts that the demand for crude oil in the world will peak as soon as next year.
The report considers two different scenarios. First, the “Current Trajectory” scenario is based on pledges and policies to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change that are already in place. Second, the “Net Zero” scenario is based on policies to achieve a 95% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050, in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement on mitigating climate change.
While BP predicts that the global demand for crude oil will peak at around 102 million barrels per day (bpd) under both scenarios in 2025, the pace of the subsequent decline differs starkly, with the use of oil for road transport being the determining factor. By 2050, the demand for oil will still be 75 million bpd under the Current Trajectory, but it would be just 25 million bpd under Net Zero.
BP, which also makes the Castrol metalworking range, sees alternative energy sources like solar and wind continuing to grow rapidly to fill the gap. BP sees primary energy demand continuing to rise until the middle of the next decade under the Current Trajectory, albeit to only 5% more than in 2022. It then believes that lower energy use in developed economies and ultimately China will then offset rising energy use in emerging economies. Under the Net Zero scenario, BP believes energy use would be 25% lower than in 2022.
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