22/10/2026 by Daniel Tait
Oil production from the OPEC+ countries has recently seen a sharp increase, with Saudi Arabia being mainly responsible.
The OPEC+ group includes, among others, the oil-producing Gulf states and Russia, both of which have had production impaired by local conflicts. In its latest monthly report, OPEC said the group produced 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) on average compared to August, taking the total average daily production to 39.07 million bpd. Saudi Arabia alone pumped more than 2 million bpd more in September than August.
The Saudi’s September production of 8.372 million bpd is below its target OPEC+ quota of around 10.5 million bpd. Nevertheless, it has fared better than other Gulf producers, thanks to an East-West pipeline that allows it to bypass the problematic Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco, which owns the Valvoline line of industrial lubricants like hydraulic oil, also increased exports from its Gulf terminals following a disruption to the pipeline.
To mitigate the effect of the unprecedented supply disruption on global markets, substantial reserves and inventories have been released from stockpiles. OPEC again lowered its expectations for demand growth this year, but predicted a sharp increase next year to replenish these stockpiles, saying:
“This is assuming that oil demand in 2026 will indeed soften as currently expected and will be further bolstered next year by the need to replenish oil inventories.”
According to OPEC’s current predictions, global oil demand will rise by 180,000 bpd this year. This will go up another 2.55 million bpd in 2027 to reach a daily average of 108.3 million barrels.
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