12/11/2024 by OilStoreAdministrator
France-based TotalEnergies has published the latest annual TotalEnergies Energy Outlook, which supplies three scenarios for how the global energy system may develop.
New to this year’s report is the Trends scenario, which models an outcome based on current trends for public policy and technological development. It considers the accelerated deployment of mature renewable power technologies and the introduction of low-carbon technologies like heat pumps and electric vehicles to use the generated power.
Nevertheless, large-scale deployment is being limited by geopolitical tensions and infrastructure constraints, leading to a global temperature rise of 2.6–2.7°C by 2100.
TotalEnergies, which also makes the Total coolant range, then presents the Momentum scenario. This incorporates the stated decarbonisation strategies of the NZ50 countries and the remaining countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). While this implies a more rapid energy transition, insufficient investment in low-carbon technology in the Global South means that half of the growth in energy demand will be met by fossil fuels. This leads to an increase in temperature of 2.2–2.3°C by 2100.
Finally, the Rupture scenario lays out what will likely need to be done to keep the temperature increase below 2°C. This will require deploying low-carbon technologies more globally. For example, India and the Global South will need 80% more capacity for wind and solar power to be installed by 2030 compared to the Trends scenario. All the levers for decarbonisation will then need to be pulled from 2040 to keep the temperature increase down to 1.7–1.8°C by 2100.
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