22/09/2026 by Cameron Clarke
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration (IEA) has further raised its predicted US oil output for next year.
The US is already on track to set a new record for average crude oil production this year. The latest IEA estimate remains unchanged at 13.8 million barrels per day (bpd), edging out last year’s record of 13.7 million bpd. Estimates for next year, however, have been gradually revised upwards as operators seek to capitalise on higher oil prices. The IEA’s latest report puts it at 14.3 million bpd.
Most of the predicted growth is attributed to the US portion of the Gulf of Mexico and the Permian Basin. US-based majors like Chevron and ExxonMobil, the makers of the Texaco and Mobil lubricant and grease ranges, have been employing innovative technologies in their US operations. Exxon has also benefitted from synergies after acquiring Pioneer Natural Resources.
The IEA attributes the increased production in the Gulf of Mexico to four large projects coming online, adding:
“We expect four new, smaller projects to come online by the end of 2026, further contributing to forecast production growth this year. Hurricanes in the Gulf of America [Mexico] could disrupt the production and development timeline of these new projects, although experts predict a milder-than-normal hurricane season this year.”
The hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin spans June through November. Due to El Niño conditions, Colorado State University is currently predicting that hurricane activity will be below average this year.
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