OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook predicts that the global demand for crude oil will rise to 123 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2050.
The prediction comes despite revising down its expected demand growth in the next few years due to slowing Chinese economic growth. Nevertheless, it still expects the world’s overall demand to rise from 103.7 million bpd last year to 113.3 million bpd by 2030. This will mostly come from an 8.6 million bpd rise from non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, although even the demand from OECD countries will rise by a modest 1 million bpd.
Demand from non-OECD countries is also expected to drive growing overall demand through to the middle of the century. The report predicts that an increased demand of just under 28 million bpd will outweigh a decline of 8.5 million bpd from OECD countries.
In the foreword, OPEC boss Haitham Al Ghais said that there were considerations of drifting away from the possibility of phasing out oil and gas, adding:
“…oil and the petroleum products derived from it continue to provide immense benefits to billions. Without them, cars, buses and trucks would be stranded, airplanes would be grounded, the construction sector would all but grind to a halt, food production would be devastated, and many health-related products would be difficult to produce.”
Many big oil companies like Shell, the maker of the Gadus grease range, have shifted attention back to upstream production. Al Ghais said that by 2050, $18.2 trillion in such investment would be needed by the oil industry alone to meet the world’s energy needs.
