
Reuters reports that OPEC will start reporting its forecasts for crude oil demand from the OPEC+ group, rather than focusing solely on OPEC member countries.
OPEC+ is the official name for countries participating in what is formally known as the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). In addition to OPEC members, it also includes 10 other oil-producing countries, most notably Russia.
The Vienna secretariat of OPEC usually publishes monthly estimates for the demand for OPEC crude, with analysts often regarding it as an indication of market strength. In April, it also started publishing estimates of demand for DoC crude, and according to Reuters, it will stop publishing the OPEC-only figures from this month.
The move reflects OPEC’s declining market share, much of which has been lost to US producers like ExxonMobil and Chevron, the makers of the Mobil and Texaco grease and lubricant ranges.
After Angola left the cartel at the end of last year, OPEC’s market share fell to 27% of global supply, compared to 41% for the wider OPEC+ group.
The group is widely expected to continue their production cuts, as expressed recently by ING strategists in a note:
“Price weakness increases the likelihood that OPEC+ members will fully rollover their 2.2m b/d (barrels per day) of additional voluntary cuts into the second half of the year, which risks overtightening the market later in 2024, assuming no downside surprises on the demand side.”
They also noted, however, that the upcoming presidential election in the US could also influence the decision.