In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MMOR), OPEC has revised down its forecasts for demand growth for this year and the next.
This is the third MMOR to lower the forecasted demand growth. OPEC says this is based on actual consumption data for this year so far and lower predictions of demand growth in some regions.
It now expects demand this year to be 106,000 barrels per day (bpd) lower for a 1.93 million bpd year-on-year increase. Much of this was driven by a 70,000 bpd reduction in China’s expected oil demand this year, with it now expected to grow by just 580,000 bpd over the year.
In terms of oil production in countries not participating in the OPEC+ agreement (non-DoC countries), OPEC expects this to rise by:
“…1.2 mb/d, y-o-y (year over year), in 2024, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil and China. The non-DoC liquids supply growth forecast for 2025 is also unchanged at 1.1 mb/d, y-o-y.”
OPEC adds that the production growth next year will mainly come from Canada, Norway, Brazil and the US, where oil majors like Chevron and ExxonMobil, the makers of the Texaco and Mobil lubricant ranges, are growing their production in the shale fields.
The MMOR also revised down its demand growth predictions for next year to 1.6 million bpd. It says the vast majority of this will come from non-OECD countries, particularly India, the Middle East, China and other countries in Asia.
