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EIA ramps up US oil production forecast

Speciality Gas Processing

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for total US production of crude oil by some 200,000 barrels per day (bpd).

With oil prices being relatively high, US producers like ExxonMobil, the maker of the Mobil SHC gear oil range, have been incentivised to bring more production online. The outlook also cites well-level productivity as being better than expected. The EIA now expects the total production of crude oil in the US to average 12.8 million bpd this year, which is a new record. It then expects production to reach a new record level of 13.1 million bpd next year.

On a global scale, the EIA expects the overall production of liquid fuels to:

“…increase by 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023. Non-OPEC production increases by 2.1 million b/d in 2023, which is partly offset by a drop in OPEC liquid fuels production. In 2024, global production increases by 1.7 million b/d, with 1.2 million b/d coming from non-OPEC countries.”

The EIA expects the increasing global demand for crude oil, combined with Saudi Arabia’s recent extension to its voluntary production cuts, to put some upward pressure on oil prices as global inventories decline. A barrel of Brent crude is now expected to cost an average of $86 in the second half of this year, which is some $7 more than its previous estimate. It then expects prices to start declining in the second half of next year as increased global oil production keeps up with demand.

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