In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC has reinforced its forecasts for oil demand growth in both this year and next year, despite the recent drop in oil prices that it attributes to concerns about oil demand being exaggerated.
In the report, OPEC dismisses concerns about oil demand from China, pointing to the fact that China will import a record volume of crude oil this year, suggesting strong market fundamentals. OPEC repeated its previous forecast of the global demand for crude oil growing by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) over this year, averaging 102.1 million bpd thanks to increasing demand from countries outside the OECD.
In 2024, the cartel expects demand to average 104.4 million bpd, which would be a further increase of 2.2 million bpd.
According to OPEC, support for oil demand will be found in:
“…resilient global GDP growth, amid continued improvements in economic activity in China. Continuous improvements in economic activity, steady manufacturing, and transportation activity mostly in China, Other Asia, and the Middle East, as well as in India and Latin America, are expected to account for the bulk of oil consumption.”
The OPEC report also mentions how US oil production continues to reach record highs, as US producers like Chevron and ExxonMobil, the makers of the Texaco and Mobil lubricant ranges, continue to beat expectations. OPEC said it expects the US production of liquids to grow by 1.3 million bpd this year, with total non-OPEC growth forecasted to be 1.8 million bpd.