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IEA edges up prediction for global demand


The International Energy Agency (IEA) has once more increased its forecasted global crude oil demand for this year, with it going up 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) from January’s prediction to 101.9 million bpd.

The Paris-based organisation cites the main factor for the revision being China’s reopening as it moves away from its zero-covid policy. The new forecast would mean the world using 2 million more barrels of crude oil on average each day than it did last year, suggesting that the world has not lost its appetite for consuming fossil fuels.

The reports says about the current situation:

“Nearly a year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global oil markets are trading in relative calm. Oil prices are back to pre-war levels with the exception of diesel, though even these have drifted much lower from last summer’s historical highs.”

The report adds that the global supply of oil will likely outpace demand for the first half of this year, although it cautions that with Russia reducing some of its production and demand set to recover, this could change into a supply deficit. Russia has already announced a 500,000 bpd cut in production, starting from March 1, in response to the price cap imposed by some nations on Russian crude. This will effectively negate the predicted growth in US production by companies like ExxonMobil, the maker of Mobil DTE hydraulic oil, although the IEA also points to Brazil, Canada, Norway, and Guyana also pumping record volumes of oil, as well as strong production from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

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