In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted that the global production of crude oil will reach a new record high of 103.5 million barrels per day (bpd), with non-OPEC+ growth driving the increase.
The rise of 1.5 million bpd in 2024 will mostly come from the Americas, with Guyana, the US, Brazil and Canada all set to reach record levels of production. Guyana in particular is experiencing rapid growth in production as ExxonMobil, the maker of Mobil cutting fluid and other metalworking fluids, develops its string of discoveries offshore of the country.
At the same time, the IEA expects the OPEC+ group to keep its production broadly in line with last year, under the assumption that the additional voluntary cuts will gradually be phased out in the second quarter.
The IEA said it also expects the growth in demand to slow down this year:
“Global oil demand growth slowed to 1.7 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q23 – well below the 3.2 mb/d rate registered during 2Q23-3Q23, mirroring the unwinding of China’s post-pandemic release of travel demand. Growth is projected to ease from 2.3 mb/d in 2023 to 1.2 mb/d in 2024.”
Overall, the IEA says that with non-OPEC production growing faster than the demand for oil, the market looks likely to be fairly well supplied this year – at least, if there are no significant disruptions to the flow of oil, such as from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.